In less than six months, Malaysia enters its second wave in battling COVID-19. The weeks of two-digit reported cases have spiked into three-digit cases. Worst, 691 cases alone were reported on October 6th, the highest number ever reported. Something could have gone miscalculated since Malaysia managed to keep two digit reported cases for few months. One of conclusive analyses suggests September 26th Sabah State Election as the main driver for a spike of cases. We could see cases start to increase once the election is over, when people are transferring the virus onto other areas within the country.
Graph: Distribution of COVID-19 Cases According to Date of Confirmation.
Source: CPRC, Ministry of Health.
Malaysians process the ascending cases in panic, also with disgusted feelings towards political actors from the Sabah Election. Blaming games have started by pointing out power greed as the cause that led to the viral infections of COVID-19. Adherence to the SOP could have gone unchecked, if not missing that leads to the increase of infection.
I submit COVID-19 is a test of unity in Malaysia. It is also a general hypothesis to all countries contracting with the virus. This is the moment when government coordination is put onto scrutiny, actions and omissions of famous individuals are put to questions, even a simple violation would cause uproar among internet users. It is fine to scrutinise actions and omissions of individuals, however, Malaysians could not be dragged into fractions, and separatism.
Two take-away points I would like to offer.
- Crisis Management Strategy.
Malaysia’s Crisis Management is in chaos during second wave of COVID-19. This is based on four general rubrics how an effective crisis management should be: Risk Analysis, Chain of Command, Turbulence Anticipation and Confidence Restoration.
- Risk Analysis – Malaysians failed to analyse and be fully aware of the density of the risk. Election, while constitutionally is a must in the absence of government but strategically is an adverse outcome in times of pandemics. Malls are avenues for gathering in weekends. Even eateries lack of one meter distancing adherence. These negligence compliances suggest to us that Malaysians failed to understand the possibility of second wave, hence less complying.
- Chain of Command – Malaysia uplifts (Movement Control Order) MCO to Recovery-MCO, when strict movement control is relaxed to a precautionary normal mode. Throughout MCO, Majlis Keselamatan Negara (MKN) was fully active, having support from the Royal Army and Police. Social distancing and order was fully restored and Malaysia manages to reduce the infection rate. However past MCO, the presence of authorities have become lesser, resulting into a poor obedience of the mass. COVID-19 needs a carrier. It would not simply travel by air, water or objects. Humans are still largely responsible for a larger outbreak because of physical interaction.
- Turbulence Anticipation – Malaysia was off guard while numbers are showing positive signs. It did not matter whether it is for days or weeks. The absence of minds while we are still battling the unseen enemy invites turbulence from various angles. We were careless. We were off guard and we were not focus. We did not anticipate that a disrupting event could just blow up if we were not consistent in our recovery process. Sabah Election is the turbulence that we did not anticipate to be a full-blown catastrophe. We were under the impression that the Election is manageable, but we were miscalculated.
- Confidence Restoration – To escape crisis, managers and stakeholders need confidence. Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s leadership strives to create confidence to the people that the government is in the control of COVID-19 situation. In an official announcement dated Oct 6th, while the government is aware on the spike number of cases, the government is much more prepared to handle, compared to the time of its early outbreak
- Political Leadership + Civil Servants
An effective leadership is tested in times of crisis. When Muhyiddin Yassin’s government heralded the outbreak, his leadership thus far receives credit from Malaysians and international communities. Interestingly the duo combination of political actors and civil servants proves to be a success chemistry for Malaysia. Majlis Keselamatan Negara (MKN) is utilised to act as an overarching entity overseeing Malaysia’s response to weather the pandemic. It is jointly participated by Prime Minister, Ministers of Defence and as well as the experts from the civil service.
It is important to note, MKN serves as a Council. It is not an institution, which has sufficient numbers of staff to coordinate and monitor nation wide. MKN delegates the operational control to National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) as a policy-making organisation and Civil Defence Force (JPAM) as states operation units during RMO. Having MKN, NADMA and JPAM (at the state level), while in theory complement each other, lacks of a codified command control. Three agencies, though it is ranked hierarchically (JPAM to NADMA to MKN), has risks of overlapping. Armed forces are deployed (under MKN) besides the presence of JPAM, to be regulated by policies written by NADMA. Each are reporting to their own chain of command, giving rise to multiple chains of command in times of national catastrophe.
Evaluating Muhyiddin’s government, there is a synergy of various actors to form concerted effort. Though miscommunication happens during its early stage, the government is seen to be consistent in its policies towards COVID-19. However, political instability as a whole still serves as a stumbling block. Power struggle has shown no sign of cooling off due to the low majority of current government to lead. The challenge of Muhyiddin’s government is to manifest a stable political leadership throughout COVID-19, all the way to the next 15th General Election.
Concluding, this is a critical time for the country as cases are spiking exponentially. Though we are considerably low to other countries like U.S., Italy, China and U.K., comparison to these is irrelevant. We could not remain complacent. Effective governance and structure is needed throughout the second wave. I have suggested two focused areas to look at namely, crisis management strategy and political leadership vis-à-vis civil service. At the same time, mass behaviour will also be the succeeding factor in this battle.