IMPORTANT CHRONOLOGY:
9th May 2018: The results of 14th General Election was assumed as the new dawn for Malaysia and its politics. For the first time in history, undefeated Barisan Nasional coalition since 1965 lost to Pakatan Harapan. Malaysians presume to have a New Malaysia when winning Pakatan Harapan initiates reforms.
23rd February 2020: The collapse of Pakatan Harapan sends shocks to nation-wide voters when Bersatu withdrew from the coalition. Known as the “Sheraton Move”, a new coalition was said to be established having Bersatu, GPS, UMNO, PAS and PKR defectors.
24th February 2020: Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed of Pakatan Harapan resigned as Prime Minister and Bersatu Chairman.
27th February 2020: Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is sworn as the eight Prime Minister, to lead the new coalition called, Perikatan Nasional.
8th May 2020: A motion of no confidence vote towards Prime Minister is accepted by the Dewan Rakyat Speaker Tan Sri Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof.
18th May 2020: Parliament is convened for one day reading, for the King’s speech.
28th May 2020: Tun Mahathir Mohamed, Dr. Mazlee Malik, Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, Mukhriz Mahathir and Amiruddin Hamzah‘s Bersatu’s memberships are revoked.
13th July 2020: Speaker and the Deputy Speaker of Dewan Rakyat (lower house) are removed via a vote tabled by the ruling government. The appointment of the Speaker and Deputy Speaker was made by the then Pakatan Harapan.
30th July 2020: Umno president Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi today announced that the party will not be part of Perikatan Nasional and instead concentrate on strengthening Muafakat Nasional alongside Pas.
This seems to suggest Malaysian political crisis enters into unprecedented instability which no sign of cooling down.
LESSONS FROM INDONESIA.
Indonesia enjoys stability for decades beginning 1966 all the way to 1997. For 31 years of the New Order, Soeharto enjoys political stability, with joint assistance from ABRI. The government operates with the strong presence of the army, which able to triumph economics and political echelon. High level of official corruption, cronyism, nepotism and low satisfaction of rule of law were spotted however, was not able to shake the leadership. The Asian Financial Crisis 1997 is the tsunami when it changes the whole landscape. Soeharto receives backlashes from his regime which lead to his resignation. BJ Habibie (1998-1999) was sworn as president having to restore rule of law, education via science and technology and some political reform. It was a struggle for Habibie as the regime was so much ingrained with dictatorship on top of receiving less public recognition. His success could be attributed to Indonesia’s first free election and referendum towards East Timor establishment. Habibie lost in the election and has to make way to Abdurrahman Wahid (1999-2001). Portraying as an Islamist, Wahid reforms Indonesia’s military involvement into socio-political role, much to the dismay of the military. However, he was alleged of national funding abuse which lead to his impeachment. On November 2000, 151 DPR members signed his impeachment petition. Megawati Sukarnoputri (2001-2004), the daughter of late President Sukarno, is sworn in as the president. She heralded her presidency on full term until 2004, making way for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
Presidents Yudhoyono (2004-2014) and Jokowi (2014 till present) era are said to claim political stability, with a working structure of governance.
PREDICTION FOR MALAYSIA
Malaysia is predicted to mirror the Indonesian cycle. For the past 61 years, we enjoyed political stability when Barisan Nasional (BN) and the Prime Minister holds majority in the government. Regardless of different leadership styles of its Prime Ministers, BN enjoys collective responsibility of his cabinet members and a strong grip of the government. 14th General Election changes the landscape when the 7th Prime Minister was chosen from the party who enjoys the least seat in the Dewan Rakyat (lower house of the Parliament). 14th General Election also provides no single party who enjoys majority (112) in the parliament.
Results of 14th General Election in Malaysia, according to parties’ winning of seats.
- Barisan Nasional 79
- Parti Keadilan Rakyat 48
- Democratic Actions Party (DAP) 42
- Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) 18
- PPBM 12
- Amanah 11
- Warisan 8
- STAR, Sabah 1
- Individual 3
Will Indonesia be a good case reference for the projection of Malaysian politics?
Hypothetically yes, though no theory can be used to validate such hypothesis. Our culture and socio-political situation enjoys certain extent of similarity. Both situations are suggesting a trend – the collapse of status-quo political dominance would lead to instability until a new status-quo/norm is well established. Malaysia has just entered a new phase following the collapse of Barisan Nasional regime. Worst, the collapse of the old regime is not supported by a dominant political party who enjoys simple majority. This leads to coalition of parties to form the government under no legal ties within coaliting packs. A party is free to join and is free to walk away, as seen on February 23rd.
Unlike Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional for 61 years enjoys mutual ties and cooperation between all component parties. UMNO, MCA, MIC and other Sabah/Sawarak-based component parties form a strong alliance during the election and also while forming the government. That is not to say that they are free from conflicting views and bickering. But those happen in-house, which they amicably manage to resolve internally (though it reaches to the public’s attention). Several issues like HINDRAF, UEC, 355 Bill on (Hudud) Islamic Law are known to be the conflicting debates within BN. However, none leaves the pack. This suggests that political dominance (by UMNO) ensures stability. Simply put, there must be a party to dominate and others are simply co-leading.
Equal representation or proportionate power sharing, while is good for all, could not guarantee political stability.
This brings us to a question – Does Malaysia needs proportionate power sharing which is unstable or a political dominance that is stable?
Both have its plus points and side backs. After all, this is the “ugly” side of democracy in Southeast and Northeast Asia.
To conclude, in order for a new norm/regime to be internally restored, Malaysia will experience political turmoil. This would take years or a decade if we could not establish a new norm/regime. The article does not take side on which norm/regime we should have as that would be in a different discussion. However, the longer that we search for the new norm/regime, we shall keep on expecting turbulences towards our political system.
Will General Election 2015 puts an end to this? We have to wait and see.
