This brief analysis will project implication of Biden’s presidency to Malaysia. The narratives of President-elect Joe Biden’s foreign policy during his presidential campaign are analysed in order for us to project U.S. behaviour as soon as its 46th president is sworn in 20th January 2021. The narratives are then framed into a clear premise of Biden’s presidency before we could draw the implication for Malaysia. There are FOUR premises identified to be in relations with Malaysia. Each of the premises is then provided with possible implication.
PREMISE ONE
The U.S. will lead again. Contrary to the outgoing President, the U.S. will steer an active leadership at the global level. Concomitantly, it is coming back to Asia. There is a consistency of this approach between now and during Biden’s tenure as Vice-President. He supports Obama’s pivoting to Asia in line with its emergence as Pacific Power. In an article published by Foreign Affairs March/April 2020, Biden justifies – Why America Must Lead Again.
Implication to Malaysia:
Malaysia will not be at the limelight directly, but will face consequences on domino-effect basis. U.S. leadership will interrupt China’s global reach, although U.S. will not be confrontational to China’s rise. China’s Xi Jinping is adamant in building an economic and sea power of Asia. Washington, according to Biden, plans to build a limited front of allies and partner to deal with China. As Malaysia is strategically located in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), such attention of the U.S. will also be directed to Malaysia. Malaysia will be at the juncture in welcoming U.S. presence in the region, while at the same tight economically depending on China as well for its infrastructure development. At the same time, there are 9 BRI projects in Malaysia spanning over the period of 25 years. In specific, Trans-Sabah Gas Pipeline (projected value of USD1 billion) and Multi-Product Pipeline (projected value of USD1.35 billion) have no definite completion timeline as we speak.
PREMISE TWO
U.S. will remain hostile to China. Both nations rivalry however is unlikely to be confrontational and utilising the use of force. However, there is an ideological war between western democracy and authoritarianism, which leads to a never-ending asymmetrical race. Historically, liberal democracy and communism clash has resulted into military reactions. Both U.S. and China realised that this has to be avoided for mutual prosperity. In championing ideological clash, Washington and Beijing competes using future’s competency areas of clean energy, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, 5G communications and cancer.
Implication to Malaysia:
Malaysia is a democratic nation having economy stability as one of its main national interest. Economy growth is Malaysia’s greatest importance as it is a trading country for its manufacturing and assembling goods. While its constitutional democracy mirrors to the western influence (United Kingdom), China remains as its first trading partner with a USD124 million GDP in 2020. Assuming its tourism industry would only be healed by 2022, Malaysia could not lose China for exporting its goods until then and beyond.
In the areas of clean energy, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, 5G communications and cancer, Malaysia will be at the juncture to support and to subscribe either Washington or China, which definitely will have trade implications. The juncture must be prevented at all costs. The dilemma is a proven testimony having considered Malaysia’s reliance on international trade. As a result of U.S. – China trade war alone, Malaysia’s trade volume drops remarkably by 10% – 20% in the first half of 2020. Should trade war is not mitigated and resulting into a full-blown, Malaysia would expect only 4% GDP growth in 2021. As a country that its economy is deeply integrated with global supply and chain, a little disruption of global supply chain (especially China) will adversely affect the national income.
PREMISE THREE
The U.S. is reviving its democracy at home as well as towards the global level. This means democracy will be a global agenda, propagated by the U.S. President Biden will reverse Trump’s policies on families separation at the border, detrimental asylum policies, travel ban and refugee admissions. The U.S. will sustain as a superpower if democratic norms and countries around the world also supports its democratic system.
Implication to Malaysia
Democracy in Malaysia will be at a spotlight. Discussions will rise in comparing U.S. democracy and other practices of the system, including Malaysia. The comparison discussion would derail people from understanding the demographic and context of democracy in Malaysia. Constitutional monarchy, special position of the Malays and Sabah/Sarawak natives, Islam as the federal religion are strongly embedded via the Federal Constitution. We project that these topics will be revisited in hot debates over new incidents.
In 2018, Malaysia plans to ratify ICERD (International Convention on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination) albeit received rejection from the Malay elites. In the end, the proposal was brought down but this could be revisited in near future.
PREMISE FOUR
Strengthening Diplomacy, Alliances and Multilateralism. U.S. will be pivoting to NATO (on security and defence), 2015 Paris Accord (on green energy and environment), and asian-based multilateralism. Specific countries of interest would be Australia, Israel, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
Implication to Malaysia.
This will be Malaysia’s strong point in projecting its national interest. U.S. diplomacy and commitment to multilateralism will align with Malaysia’s Change in Continuity as our foreign policy network. Malaysia could advance its concern through diplomatic discussion and multilateral meetings. Should U.S. actively comes back to ASEAN and ASEAN +3, Malaysia would use U.S. to champion its regional leadership. However, there is a word of cautious to be taken. U.S. – Indonesia/Vietnam alliance would potentially disrupt the balance of power in Southeast Asia. For instance, Washington could be a stumbling block for Malaysia’s aspiration in ASEAN if its ASEAN COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plan is not supported by any of the member countries. In 1989, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed responded to U.S.’ insertion into APEC by establishing the East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC). EAEC failed due to the refusal of Japan to command leadership, due to the pressure from the U.S. Similarly in 1998, Japan’s proposed Asian Monetary Fund (as a response to Asia’s Financial Crisis) was turned down by few countries including the U.S. Such move is believed due to the fear that AMF will undermine existing International Monetary Fund and will create a split between Asia and North America. Also, should U.S. bilateral relations with Vietnam and Indonesia are deepened, both countries could indirectly project U.S. interest into the region, which would not be welcomed by other member countries and China. In the Asia Pacific region (APEC 2020), Malaysia hopes Biden’s administration will drive its mission towards the creation of resilient future via shared prosperity. U.S. should assist Malaysia in championing the agenda by being the deliverable to the theme.
